Shocking 31% US Tariffs on Swiss Goods—What Happens Next?

1. Introduction: A Sudden Trade Upset

The United States has just imposed 31% tariffs on all goods imported from Switzerland. This shocking move worries both Swiss companies and American consumers. By taxing Swiss products so heavily, prices in the US will likely climb for items such as medicines, watches, machinery, and even chocolate. As a result, US customers may buy fewer Swiss goods.

Trade between Switzerland and the United States has been strong for many years. In 2023, Swiss exports to the US totaled $56.29 billion (1). The overall exchange of goods and services between the two countries reached $185.9 billion that same year (1). But now, a 31% tariff could slow or reverse this growth. Steep tariffs often make imported products less appealing, especially when buyers can switch to cheaper options.

US officials claim these tariffs target unfair trade practices or aim to reduce a trade deficit, which was CHF 38.5 billion in 2024 (3). Still, Switzerland has already removed most tariffs on industrial goods (9), suggesting there may be miscommunication or deeper strategic reasons behind the US policy. Some sources say the US wants to protect local industries, while others think these tariffs send a tough signal to trading partners.

Whatever the motive, many economists agree that high tariffs create new problems. They raise consumer prices, shrink export demand, and can lead to job cuts. In the sections that follow, we explore how this tariff affects key Swiss export sectors, how demand might change, and what Switzerland might do in response.

2. Close Ties Between Switzerland and the US

Before the tariffs, the US was Switzerland’s single most important market for goods. In 2024, total trade in goods reached $88.4 billion, with US imports of Swiss goods jumping 21.3% to $63.4 billion (2). This strong relationship benefited both sides and reflected a growing trust in Swiss quality and American buying power.

Yet, these tariffs could seriously damage that trust. Large Swiss companies rely on the US for a major share of their profits. For over a decade, Swiss exports to the US grew at an average rate of 7.94% (1). Now, a 31% levy might push buyers to look for alternatives in Asia or within the US itself.

Some claim the tariff addresses concerns about trade imbalances. A weaker US dollar—which has recently lost value against the euro and Swiss franc—adds another twist. When the dollar weakens, Swiss goods cost even more in the US because each franc buys more dollars. This can further reduce how many Swiss products Americans can afford.

Critics argue that steep tariffs often spark retaliation. Switzerland could impose its own duties on American products, raising prices for Swiss consumers. That path might harm both economies. In fact, research from groups like the KOF Swiss Economic Institute shows big tariffs generally lower economic growth (54, 55). Many hope cooler heads will prevail, so the two countries can continue to enjoy open trade without punishing fees.

3. Key Swiss Exports to America

Switzerland is known for high-quality, high-value goods. Below are some of the top Swiss exports to the US, along with their approximate values:

1. Pharmaceuticals: About $35.46 billion in 2024 (11). This includes packaged medications, vaccines, and related products (12).
2. Precious Metals & Coins: About $15.30 billion in 2024 (11). Gold alone can top $8 billion in some years (12).
3. Watches and Clocks: About $4.97 billion in 2024 (11). Swiss watches are famous worldwide for precision and luxury.
4. Optical, Photo, and Technical Instruments: About $4.35 billion in 2024 (11). This category includes medical devices and measuring tools.
5. Machinery, Boilers, and Nuclear Reactors: About $3.56 billion in 2024 (11).

Switzerland also exports services—like insurance, licensing, and IT—worth $32.31 billion in 2023 (1). Even though the new tariff applies to goods, a trade standoff can still affect services by reducing cross-border confidence and cooperation.

(Source: 11, 12)

If Swiss products get 31% pricier in the US, many buyers may look for cheaper brands or new suppliers. Goods that people consider “needs,” like life-saving medicines, might see smaller drops in sales. However, items like mid-range watches or less essential machinery could suffer steep declines if the price surge is too high.

4. How the 31% Tariff Raises Prices

A 31% ad valorem tariff means importers pay a tax equal to 31% of the shipment’s cost. So, $100 of Swiss goods becomes $131 at the border, not counting other fees or markups. For $35.46 billion worth of pharmaceuticals, this extra cost could near $10.99 billion (16). This might lead to higher prescription drug prices in the US.

Watches and clocks, which total $4.97 billion, face about $1.54 billion in added fees (3). Luxury watchmakers might pass most of this cost to buyers, betting that brand loyalty keeps customers paying top dollar. In contrast, mid-range watchmakers risk losing sales to competitors. Meanwhile, Swiss machinery worth $3.56 billion could see $1.10 billion tacked on (19). American factories might then shop around for domestic or cheaper foreign equipment.

This extra cost can be split between Swiss exporters, US importers, and final customers. If goods are “inelastic” (people still buy them even if prices rise), the exporter might pass most of the cost on. But if the product is “elastic” (people can easily switch), the Swiss company might absorb some costs to stay competitive.

Because the US dollar is losing value against major currencies like the Swiss franc and euro, these costs grow even faster. When the dollar falls, American buyers must spend more dollars to purchase the same Swiss goods. This double hit—weak dollar plus high tariff—makes Swiss products look very expensive in the US.

5. Why Demand May Drop: Price Elasticity

How much demand falls depends on price elasticity—how sensitive buyers are to changes in price:

• Pharmaceuticals: Often inelastic (21). Even a big price jump might cause only a small drop in demand, because medicines are essential.
• Gold and Precious Metals: Some investors buy more gold when prices rise, seeing it as a safe investment (27, 28). On the other hand, jewelry buyers might cut back if costs become too high.
• Watches: Luxury brands can handle bigger price hikes due to strong brand loyalty. But mid-range watch sales may plunge if casual shoppers turn to alternative brands (32).
• Machinery and Equipment: Known to have high elasticity (34, 36). US companies can postpone investing or switch to other suppliers if Swiss gear becomes too pricey.
• Medical Devices: More inelastic since hospitals need reliable tools (39). Still, if something jumps 31% in cost, buyers might look for competitive products.

(Sources: 21, 27, 32, 34, 36, 39)

In short, fewer people or businesses will buy Swiss goods if prices jump. For essentials, demand might only dip a little, but for optional items, the effect could be severe. The result is lower revenue for Swiss exporters, which can hurt profits and possibly lead to job cuts at home.

6. Sector-by-Sector Effects in Switzerland

Pharmaceuticals

Swiss pharma giants like Novartis and Roche sell large volumes to the US (41, 42). Because medicine is typically inelastic, some analysts expect a smaller drop in sales. However, the costs for US consumers, insurers, and hospitals could rise. Over time, Swiss companies might shift more production to the US to avoid paying tariffs on goods shipped from Switzerland (17).

Machinery and Electrical Equipment

Machinery exports total about $3.56 billion (11). Since many industrial buyers can choose from different suppliers, a 31% jump in price may be a dealbreaker (19). This could force Swiss firms to cut production or find ways to reduce prices.

Watches and Precision Instruments

Watch exports are worth $4.97 billion (11), and precision instruments add another $4.35 billion (11). Luxury watch brands might endure, but mid-range brands could suffer a big drop in orders. Medical devices (part of precision instruments) might hold steadier, given hospitals’ need for reliable products (49).

Precious Metals

Gold and precious stones can see complicated changes. When the US dollar loses value, some investors rush to buy gold, which can boost demand (30). Yet for simple jewelry sales, a 31% price hike might drive buyers elsewhere.

Together, these industries help power Switzerland’s economy. If they see lower sales in the US, they may reduce production, freeze hiring, or even lay off staff. Next, we look at how these challenges affect Swiss jobs and GDP in general.

7. Swiss Jobs and GDP: What’s at Stake?

When exports to a major market like the US go down, Swiss companies often respond by cutting jobs, slowing investments, or closing facilities (47). This affects not only factory workers but also service providers in local areas. Lower orders mean less need for materials and fewer staff to run machines or handle shipments.

Economists at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute estimate that broad US tariffs could shrink Switzerland’s real GDP by over 0.2% per year (46). A 31% tariff is even higher than some scenarios they studied, so the real damage might be bigger. If more countries join the trade dispute or the EU imposes additional duties, GDP could drop by 1% or more (55).

The BAK Economics group also warns that continued trade conflicts will slow export growth and freeze machinery spending (56). Uncertainty makes companies cautious, keeping them from expanding or investing in new technology. Over time, that caution can dampen innovation and competitiveness.

All this weighs on the Swiss economy. High employment and stable growth have been points of pride for Switzerland, which relies on global markets to sell its goods. If the 31% tariff lingers, Swiss businesses will need to adapt or risk losing their foothold in one of the world’s biggest consumer markets.

8. Will Switzerland Strike Back?

Some in Switzerland urge the government to retaliate by placing new tariffs on American products (6). Others want to challenge the US action at the World Trade Organization (67). Switzerland traditionally favors free trade (47), but facing such a steep barrier might spark a defensive response.

If Switzerland does add tariffs on US imports, Swiss shoppers and businesses would pay more for certain goods. That could reduce sales for American exporters, hurting their revenues. In extreme cases, a “tit-for-tat” escalation leads to a full-blown trade war, raising prices and slowing growth on both sides.

So far, the Swiss Federal Council has been cautious, studying the tariffs’ impact instead of rushing to respond (64). Some experts say a targeted approach—applying small tariffs on a few select items—might encourage the US to negotiate, rather than fueling a bigger conflict. However, no official strategy is set.

In the end, both countries risk losing if this dispute grows. Many hope Switzerland and the US can find a solution that keeps trade flowing smoothly. Whether that means direct talks, mediation by the WTO, or other measures remains to be seen.

9. The Banking Sector Takes a Hit

Switzerland is also famous for its strong banking sector. Banks like UBS and others serve international clients who use Swiss accounts to manage wealth, make investments, and conduct business deals. High tariffs can slow down cross-border transactions because fewer goods are moving, and companies may hold back on investments. This reduced activity can lead to lower fees and profits for Swiss banks.

In addition, a weaker US dollar further complicates banking operations. If the dollar loses value against the Swiss franc, investors might shift their money around to avoid currency risks. While some might see Swiss francs as a safe haven, US-based clients may now find it more expensive to hold Swiss assets. This can change the flow of funds into Swiss banks, hurting some of their services.

Banks also worry about the overall climate for foreign direct investment (FDI). If the US and Switzerland engage in a trade fight, American businesses might pause plans to invest in Swiss projects, and Swiss firms might do the same in the US. With less capital moving across borders, banks could miss out on deals to finance expansions or process currency exchanges.

Even though Switzerland’s banking laws and reputation for stability remain strong, a prolonged tariff battle can dent confidence in international trade. Many Swiss financial institutions rely on smooth global commerce to thrive. If these tariffs make trade riskier and more expensive, it could reduce banking sector growth for the near future.

10. Insights from Economic Analyses

Several respected institutions have examined the impact of major tariffs on Swiss exports:

• KOF Swiss Economic Institute: Warns of GDP losses over 0.2% a year if the US enacts broad tariffs. In scenarios with EU retaliation, Swiss GDP could fall 1% or more (55).
• BAK Economics: Predicts that trade tensions lower Swiss export growth and halt machinery investments (56).
• University of St. Gallen: Found that the US-China trade dispute slightly helped Swiss GDP by shifting trade flows (69). However, a direct US-Swiss clash is different because it targets Swiss exports directly.
• OECD: Emphasizes that open trade supports economic resilience, while tariffs add costs and weaken global supply chains (70).

All these studies point to a common theme: steep import taxes often slow growth, raise consumer prices, and cause businesses to cut back. Switzerland’s smaller size and export focus make it especially vulnerable.

11. Conclusion and Possible Paths Forward

With 31% tariffs now in place, Swiss exports face a steep climb in the US market. Big sectors like pharmaceuticals, precious metals, watches, machinery, and precision instruments could see reduced sales. That drop might cut Swiss jobs and shrink GDP. If Switzerland fights back with its own tariffs, the trade dispute could spread and hit both economies even harder.

Potential Actions for Swiss Businesses

• Diversify Markets: Look beyond the US to offset lost sales.
• Invest in the US: Build or expand factories in America to avoid tariffs on Swiss-made goods.
• Review Pricing & Supply Chains: Explore cost-cutting measures so products remain competitive.

Potential Actions for Swiss Policymakers

• Negotiate: Work with the US government to find a trade deal or reduce the tariff.
• Use Targeted Measures: If retaliation is needed, consider narrow, carefully chosen tariffs.
• Build Other Trade Deals: Seek more agreements with the EU or other regions to reduce reliance on the US market.
• Support Banking and Innovation: Help banks and exporters adapt by funding research, reducing red tape, and promoting new ideas.

While tariffs can protect certain local industries, they also raise prices and discourage trade. For now, Switzerland and the United States must decide whether they want a friendly path forward—or risk a deeper conflict that leaves both sides paying more and growing less.

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